Main Street Just Got More Cautious
Every month, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) surveys its members about how things are going. The September 2026 results are a clear signal that owners are tapping the brakes. [1]
- The Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points to 97.9, just below its 52-year average of 98.0.
- Only 7% of owners said it's a good time to expand, down 5 points in a single month.
- The Uncertainty Index rose to 90, far above its historical average of 68.
- Just 22% plan capital outlays in the next six months, and only 32% of those who did spend recently bought new equipment.
When you read numbers like that, it's tempting to put every growth plan on ice. But the details of the survey tell a more useful story.
What's Actually Worrying Owners
The survey asks owners to name their single most important problem. In September: [1]
| Problem | Share of owners | Historical average |
|---|---|---|
| Labor quality or availability | 26% | 12% |
| Inflation | 20% | 7% |
| Poor sales | 11% | n/a |
| Taxes | 11% | n/a |
| Financing and interest rates | 3% | n/a |
Two things stand out. First, the top problems are finding workers and rising costs, not weak demand. Second, only 3% name financing as their top problem, even after the Fed's rate hike. Credit is more expensive, but it's still available.
Costs Are Rising Everywhere
Inflation isn't an abstract worry. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August. [2] Owners are passing it on: a net 31% raised their average selling prices in September, more than double the historical average. [1]
Borrowing costs are up too. The average rate owners reported on short-term loans jumped 0.7 points to 8.2%, and a net 8% said their most recent loan carried a higher rate than the one before, the most since June 2025. [1]
Owners Are Still Hiring
Here's the part most headlines skip: a net 17% of owners still plan to add jobs in the next three months, and 32% have openings they can't fill. [1] Many businesses have more demand than they can handle. Their constraint is people and capacity, not customers.
How to Grow When Everyone Else Is Waiting
1. Invest in Capacity, Not Just Size
If you can't find workers, equipment that makes your current team more productive may pay off faster than a new location. Automation, better software and faster machinery all address the top problem owners named.
2. Make Smaller, Reversible Bets
In an uncertain environment, favor moves you can unwind: leasing instead of buying a second location, a pilot product line before a full launch, equipment with a strong resale market.
3. Lock In Costs Where You Can
With inflation running at 3.7% and the Fed signaling more hikes, fixed-rate financing turns a moving target into a known cost. That makes planning a lot easier. [2][3]
4. Use the Tax Calendar
Qualifying equipment placed in service by December 31 can be fully deducted this year under Section 179 (up to $2.56 million for 2026) and bonus depreciation. [4] If you were going to buy it in early 2027 anyway, moving the purchase up can bring the tax benefit forward a full year.
5. Get Your Financing Lined Up Before You Need It
Only 22% of owners borrow regularly, well below the historical average of 34%. [1] Fewer businesses are borrowing, which means those who do come prepared, with clean financials and a clear plan, get lenders' attention.
The Bottom Line
Caution makes sense when costs are rising and the outlook is cloudy. But "cautious" doesn't have to mean "frozen." The owners who come out of uncertain periods stronger are usually the ones who kept making measured investments in capacity and efficiency while their competitors waited.
If you're weighing an investment, DirectCredit can show you what financing is available before you commit, so you can make the decision with real numbers.
Sources
- NFIB, Small Business Economic Trends, September 2026; NFIB, Uncertainty Grows and Optimism Fades Slightly on Main Street in September
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – September 2026
- Investinglive, FOMC Minutes: Most participants assessed another hike would likely be appropriate by year end
- Current Federal Tax Developments, Technical Revisions to Revenue Procedure 2025-32
